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Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Sat 07 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 10 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win: 21.9%

Draw: 21.4%

Liverpool win: 56.7%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.89

More corners: Liverpool (37.4% home / 62.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 78.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Liverpool Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 22%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Corners Liverpool (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (79.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.